Uncertainty in tropical cyclone forecasts

In the last newsletter, I wrote about the possibility of the Atlantic hurricane season having below-normal activity due to El Nino. Now that we are approaching the end of the season, we can look back and see that while the season will likely end up below normal by several measures, it has been a bit more active than was anticipated a couple of months ago.

A historic Atlantic hurricane season?

In the last newsletter, I wrote about the upcoming hurricane season and the potential effects of a developing El Nino pattern in the Pacific. Now we are further along in the hurricane season here in the first half of August, and strengthening El Nino conditions are present across most of the equatorial Pacific.

Freezing spray

For those who live in the northeastern U.S. or southeastern Canada, an unusually active stretch of severe winter weather began in late January 2015 and is ongoing in the middle of February at this writing.

Wrapping up hurricane season

Hurricane season officially ended for the Atlantic and the eastern and central Pacific at the end of November. The season was a study in contrasts across these three regions, which are under the purview of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Fla.

Changing seasons

Columbus Day weekend has now passed in the U.S. at the time of this writing, and there are certainly signs on the weather maps of the North Atlantic and North Pacific of the more active weather patterns characteristic of the colder season beginning to show up.

A tale of two storms (and more)

My last newsletter spoke about the coming El Nino and its possible effects. An even earlier newsletter, “In Hawaii, Hurricanes Hardly Happen,” published one year ago at this time, talked about the relative infrequency of hurricanes in the vicinity of Hawaii. In early August, not one, but two hurricanes affected the Hawaiian Islands. This is very uncommon, as indicated in the earlier newsletters. Let’s take a look at what happened.

El Nino on the way

There have been many stories in the news recently concerning the El Nino phenomenon. This is mainly because it appears quite likely that a significant El Nino event will take shape in the coming months and persist for up to a year. With this in mind, it is worth taking a look at what this might mean for those planning ocean voyages during this period of time.