National Hurricane Center issues report on accuracy of 2010 forecasts
The 2010 National Hurricane Center Verification Report is now available. The 2010 season was very active, with 404 official forecasts issued. The center reports predicted track errors were close to the five-year mean for errors for the 12- to 36-hour predictions, but were up to 26% smaller beyond 36 hours.
The report compared various prediction models, and concluded: “On average, the skill of the official forecasts was very close to that of the TCON/TVCN consensus models, as well as to the best performing of the dynamical models. The EMXI and GFSI exhibited the highest skill, and the EGRI performed well at longer forecast times. The NGPI and GFNI were the poorer performing major dynamical models. Among the consensus models, FSSE (a corrected consensus model) performed the best overall for the second year in a row. The corrected versions of TCON, TVCN, and GUNA, however, did not perform as well as their parent models. The Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA) track goal was met.”