National Hurricane Center issues report on accuracy of 2010 forecasts

The 2010 National Hurricane Center Verification Report is now available. The 2010 season was very active, with 404 official forecasts issued. The center reports predicted track errors were close to the five-year mean for errors for the 12- to 36-hour predictions, but were up to 26% smaller beyond 36 hours.

The report compared various prediction models, and concluded:  “On average, the skill of the official forecasts was very close to that of the TCON/TVCN consensus models, as well as to the best performing of the dynamical models. The  EMXI  and  GFSI  exhibited the highest skill, and the  EGRI performed well at longer forecast times.  The  NGPI and  GFNI  were the poorer performing major dynamical models.  Among the consensus models, FSSE (a corrected consensus model) performed the best overall for the second year in a row.  The corrected versions of TCON, TVCN, and GUNA, however, did not perform as well as their parent models.  The Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA) track goal was met.”

The full report is available here.

 On average, the skill of the official forecasts was very close 
to that of the TCON/TVCN consensus models, as well as to the best performing of the 
dynamical models. The  EMXI  and  GFSI  exhibited the highest skill, and the  EGRI 
performed well at longer forecast times.  The  NGPI and  GFNI  were the poorer 
performing major dynamical models.  Among the consensus models, FSSE (a corrected 
consensus model) performed the best overall for the second year in a row.  The corrected 
versions of TCON, TVCN, and GUNA, however, did not perform as well as their parent 
models.  The Government Performance and Results Act of 1993 (GPRA) track goal was 
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